My trading insights trading without analysis can be said to do nothing manipulation without staring at the plate can be quiet

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Some friends see th What is forex rebate topic, must th bestforexrebatek that this is the currency market version of the nightmare in fact, when I first started trading I also think so, but the facts speak louder than words, with the rich experience of trading, I gradually experienced the "quiet forexrebatenetwork do Whatisforexrebatehing" of the mystery First of all, I want to explain the reason for trading without analysis people usually think that good analysis is the prerequisite for successful trading, the ancients also said "everything in advance is established, not in advance is invalid", but after being ravaged by the market for many times, sometimes have to issue a "plan in the people, things in the sky "I think the reason why the analysis results are often far from the trading results, neither in the analysis, nor in the trading, but in the irregularity of the market, or called random walk.  Analysis is a subjective behavior, the face of the same trend, benevolent, wise, even the same analyst facing the same trend may produce a variety of extrapolation, so the views of different analysts vary greatly should be commonplace phenomenon people generally believe that foreign exchange trading is a "zero-sum game", we now Imagine a more extreme situation, when analysts around the world suddenly converge on the same point of view, when we place orders but cashback forex not find buyers, where the profits come from Therefore, it is this difference in judgment of future trends is the driving force behind the turbulence of the foreign exchange market, the analysts duty is to list as many potential possibilities as possible Perhaps this is why wave theory is always "Thousands of waves", "a form of multiple solutions" reason in short, analysis is a subjective behavior, analysis is to predict the trend trading is an objective behavior, trading requires us to follow the trend trading objectivity is mainly reflected in the uniqueness of the trend, so to speak The analysts put forward are all kinds of hypotheses, the facts have not occurred before, no one can overturn its reasonableness unfortunately, there is only one fact, the traders job is to find the closest to the facts of the analysis from a variety of hypotheses, and then the implementation of the speculative industry has a famous saying called "the market is always right", so the trader should be Objective guidance subjective, rather than subjective guidance objective, which is called following the trend, not predicting the trend people often say that there is no point of view of the trader is a successful trader, which is also advocated by the Adam theory if we look at the market trend as a river, ask a branch and a leaf which floats farther? I think the answer may be a leaf, because the leaf is like a rootless duckweed, always go with the flow, with the situation; and the branch is too sharp, so it is easier to be eliminated by the trend of our minds on the future trend of the prediction is like a branch in the river, the more thorough your analysis, the stronger self-confidence, but if the direction is wrong, the result is likely to be the opposite, even if your horse is running faster, and what? In addition to the above reasons, I have also explained in the article "The Experience of Chaos Theory" why trading cannot be analyzed, which is excerpted below: The same driving force produces different results, which is the basic characteristic of all chaotic systems. "Lets take an example to illustrate this problem. In fact, we predict the future trend of the financial market, like from point A to point B to do the same line, the prediction results are certainly very different perhaps the actual trend of the financial market will overlap with one of the predictions, perhaps not at all within the predicted results of this prediction error will have how big it? Lets simplify the problem, not according to the current situation to predict the future, but according to the current situation to recover the past, that is, known A, B two points of the specific location, someone from point A to point B, let you go from point B to point A, and then return to point A without knowledge, and A, B two points without any reference between, I think the results must be very different This is like, let someone according to the daily chart recovery 1 minute If we want to predict the future trend of the financial market, it is like describing the trajectory of the financial market when we only know the starting point but not the end point. Since the market is a random walk, the trend is unpredictable, then we have studied so hard for so many years is it a waste of learning? Basic analysis and technical analysis is useless? Later, after further understanding the risky nature of the market, I have a new understanding of this issue Financial assets contain two kinds of risk: unsystematic risk and systematic risk Unsystematic risk refers to the risk caused by a particular factor that only affects the profit and loss of some or individual assets Systematic risk refers to the risk caused by a general factor that affects the profit and loss of all assets in the market Usually unsystematic risk is a risk that can be analyzed. However, systematic risk is often difficult to analyze, and I feel that sometimes technical analysis can reduce this risk, and sometimes it cant. Risk hedging seems to be more effective, but it also reduces the risk of return. The real risk is the unanticipated loss, and it is precisely this unanticipated risk that determines the return on financial assets. Because the returns of bonds and stocks are more dependent on the fundamentals of the economy and the company, this information is relatively easy to obtain and has relative stability and does not change significantly within a certain period of time, so we are able to analyze it, so that the results of the analysis also have the significance of guidance Because of this, Warren Buffett put forward the "value investment concept "However, such an analysis only focuses on the analysis of the object of the financial market - the object of the transaction (financial instruments), and does not pay more attention to the main body of the financial market - the investor foreign exchange, gold, oil, oil, and other financial instruments. -investors foreign exchange, gold, oil, futures and other financial assets in addition to economic fundamentals, but also by more other factors, especially speculators expectations of the future sometimes, although the economic fundamentals have not changed significantly, but the prices of the above-mentioned financial assets can also change significantly Soross theory of conditional reflexes is more focused on investors reaction to changes in the market, and Therefore, its description of the market is closer to the real trend Newton said after repeated investment failures, "I can calculate the orbit of the celestial bodies, but not the madness of human nature". On the other hand, also subject to the uncertainty of the unknown changes, that is, people for the established facts and unknown events and the degree of correlation can not make accurate judgment game theory has begun to ex ante information gathering and ex post chain reaction two aspects to try to be closer to the real, but how far from the practical application of it? Moreover, if the financial market is really a chaotic system, then it is questionable whether such causal correlation exists. When it comes to gaming, sometimes I really think that trading and playing chess are similar to K-line is like the pieces in Go. The fractal in chaos theory refers to a graph with non-integer dimensions, no matter how high or low it is, it is just a straight line in two directions. But the two countries are actually one on the right horn of the snail and the other on the left horn. A driver cant fully anticipate the road conditions he will face today before he goes out, so does he just not go out? Of course not, although the driver can not foresee the road conditions before going out, but they can rely on their driving skills and experience to do not be surprised by the chaos, there is no danger Similarly, although investors can not fully anticipate the future changes in the market, but can be based on their experience and technology to try to resolve the risks accumulated over time, once these experiences and techniques are set, it means that investors have established their own So how does an investor establish his own trading system? The previous article we assume that the market is a random walk, this disorderly market is like a group of disorderly people although this group of people is disorderly, we can distinguish them according to gender or height, short, fat, thin and other criteria to distinguish but, if no prior set of distinguishing criteria, then this group of people will only be a messy group of people so, from disorderly to orderly premise is to establish the sorting criteria because the market is always Right, so investors should follow the trend above I have always stressed that traders should not subjectively determine the market, not guessing the top, not guessing the bottom, to try to trade objectively trading is the master speculator Peter Lynchs winning formula, but what is the trend? The soul of objective trading is the trend in the heart, the way to beat the market is to bow down to the market is indeed very contradictory, investment is a contradictory art of the foreign exchange market as life, speculation in foreign exchange, such as being an ancient saying: the eye is short of self-awareness, wisdom is short of self-awareness to recognize the trend, the first must identify themselves investors should first position themselves, in the end they belong to hedgers, or arbitrageurs, or speculators different purposes have different This is called the type of transaction once the investor has established their own type of transaction, the next should establish a trading style in the speculative market trends every day, from time to time, so what kind of trend is suitable for their own trend? What kind of trend is most suitable for themselves only they know best, this is the reason why the trend in the heart of some investors like to fast in and fast out, some investors like to put a long line to catch a big fish to determine their own trading type and style, investors should take their own selected ruler to find a suitable trend for themselves aggressive investors can do while learning, the research and development and testing process into one; conservative investors also The former is financially costly, the latter is time-consuming, and investors choose their own But, no matter which method is used, there is a process of correction, reconciliation, and even do not rule out the possibility of a complete denial and start again from scratch Trading systems have character, and a reasonable trading system should match the character traits of the investor I have developed a Trading system, the core concept is less loss, more entry, hoping that through the continuous adjustment of their own judgment of the market error, in order to try to close to the real market trend, but the results can be described as painful, due to limited stop loss, not only to keep an eye on the plate, but also must be repeatedly defeated, it can be described as labor and money at the time I really feel like a slave to this system, every day early to rise and late to sleep, do not leave home, waiting for the market I remember most clearly that I was hit three times a day, and all of them were orders in the same direction of the same currency Such a system is not only a waste of money, but also a destruction of the spirit Later, I realized that the trend is like a plane, in the takeoff and landing is the most dangerous Of course, I am not encouraging people to invest in the long term, but the art of high can be bold, bold may not be high, and In short, the survival of the fittest, investors for not suitable for their own trading system should be abandoned as soon as possible trading system is also a feeling of the original listen to some senior investors always attribute their impressive performance because of the feeling, I thought at the time that the feeling is only these peoples prevarication, but with their own experience gradually rich, I also gradually began to recognize the importance of feeling initially, I At first, I completely believe in scientific calculations, entry points, exit points, stop-loss points, etc. are calculated through statistics and there was a time when the results were good. However, I still have one question, if one day all the computers in the world adopt the same set of trading programs, what will be the result? Later, practice proved that I was worrying about nothing, I quickly doubled my capital, but I lost all my profits in an even faster time. Later concluded that it is better to believe in the book than no book perhaps, the computer has never been able to replace the human brain, because they do not feel, do not know how to adapt and this feeling, and not what we usually call the kind of whim, but after a thousand refinements formed by the experience in the mind subconscious conditioned reflexes, like the drivers emergency response road can be the road, very road manipulation is not once and for all, set in stone The companys main business is to provide a wide range of products and services to the market. However, the foreign exchange market is not a battlefield after all, life is only once, but the transaction can start over Next, I want to talk about the process of money management and mindset adjustment in the operation of the foreign exchange expert Xu Qiang teacher once told a story, one of his customers complained to him that whenever he had a single in hand, he was on edge, so sleepless at night, ask for advice on how to solve Xu Qiang teacher told him to reduce the volume of transactions to the level that you can sleep peacefully in the risk market, we often do not have the ability to control profits, but can control the risk so, the essence of trading is not profit maximization, but risk minimization whether manipulation techniques or money management are reflected in the investors human nature, but human nature is not born to trade one of the human nature is to profit and avoid harm, when the appreciation of financial assets, most people tend to show greed. Most people tend to show the greedy side, the more up the more chase; when the depreciation of financial assets, most people tend to show the fear of the side, cut off the field this is called "chasing the rise and kill the fall", many people think that this is to follow the trend, but few people can do the appropriate stop therefore, Warren Buffett said: my success lies in, others greedy when I am cautious, others fear when I am greedy many people profit to be wise, heavy positions so that the doomsday, but do not know to stay in the green hills, not afraid of no firewood big fool if wisdom is difficult, big wisdom is more difficult I have mentioned above "trading without analysis", so that traders give up the subjective assumptions of the smart has gone against human nature, to do as the leaves go with the flow must be Forget about me, the process of subjectivity in line with objectivity is a "look into" the process of research and development of trading systems, investors must be able to "look into", carefully observe the so-called laws of change in the market, just like the board of directors carefully selected and assessed each member of the management team Once the management team is set up, the board of directors should delegate authority to the investor. Once the investor has established a trading system that he or she is satisfied with, the trading process should "jump out" and the investor should then fully trust the trading system and carefully execute the trades issued by the system. This is a test of corporate execution because they are both the chairman and general manager, investors often make the mistake of overstepping the authority of the chairman to exercise the power of the general manager This phenomenon is expressed in the trading is often subjective attempts to correct the objective, that is, the investor can not thoroughly implement the trading instructions Perhaps, when the profit we can still do a calm and easy, but when the loss, can do When investors are always looking at the market, the ups and downs of the market is bound to trigger fluctuations in investor sentiment, which is more like the investors electrocardiogram to minimize the impact of the investors subjective factors on the trading system, the best way is to see the eye, the heart is not bothered, that is, "manipulate the disk not to stare at the disk "We just need to do regularly watch the plate, in the important data announced when watching the plate on the line the unity of heaven and man is a realm, transcendence is a realm although we can not reach "no sword in the hand, no sword in the heart" realm, but can try to do "single in the hand, no single in the heart" level. Once the trading system is set, the investor is more like a farmer who can choose the variety of sowing, can decide the area of sowing, can also be expected to harvest this year, but the real harvest also depends on the natural conditions of this year, which he can not expect and control, all he can do is to cultivate the common psychological problems at this time is Expectations are too high, that is, the Buddhists say "not to seek", which is also a manifestation of greed. The pain is greater than the joy of earning a dollar, but more painful is for you to earn a dollar first, and then take the dollar away In fact, the profit is like a farmer planting seeds in the ground, if you can not even sow the seeds, then what kind of harvest can be expected? Some money is destined to lose. In short, trading without analysis can be said to do nothing, manipulation without staring at the plate can be quiet Confucius once said that people to the age of seventy can do from the heart without transgressing the rules Although, we may not really have to wait until we are too old to have an understanding, but to do it with ease must first suffer its heart will hope that we can let the wind blow and waves, but still leisurely walk

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